Foreseeing and reacting to globally impactful and existential catastrophes.

Nov 18th

H5N1 spreads further in North America, tensions between the US and Iran will likely rise next year. Read the full update

1. Ceasefire or an end to the Russia-Ukraine war

   by the end of 2025

   59%

2. Russia uses a nuclear weapon in Ukraine

   by the end of 2025

   0.46%

3. US to cause more than 20 Iranian military facilities

   by the end of 2025

   11%

Nov 11th

Russia revealed to cover 3-5% of North Korea's yearly calorie consumption in exchange for soldiers. The Russia-Ukraine war might see a ceasefire with the Trump administration. Read the full update

1. Ceasefire or an end to the Russia-Ukraine war

   by the end of 2025

   58%

Nov 4th

North Korea performed a banned ICBM test. The uppcoming US election has some tail risk, and might be followed by deadly protests. H5N1 and monkeypox continue spreading Read the full update

1. North Korea carries out a nuclear test

   in the next six months

   19%

Oct 28th

Tensions between Israel and Iran remain high while mpox continues to spread and H5N1 surveillance remains spotty Read the full update

1. Iran launches another missile or drone attack on Israeli soil

   by the end of 2024.

   59%

2. Israel successfully strikes Iranian oil refineries by the end of the year

   by the end of 2024.

   21%

3. Israel successfully strikes Iranian nuclear sites by the end of the year

   by the end of 2024

   13%

4. 10 deaths as a result of violent demonstrations conditional on the Associated Press declaring Trump’s opponent the victor.

   36%

Oct 21st

The prospect of a larger regional war receded as Israel said it would attack Iranian military rather than nuclear or oil targets. Mpox and H5N1 continue to pose pandemic threats. Read the full update

Oct 14th

It looks as though Israel won’t be bombarding nuclear sites in Iran. Read the full update

1. There will be direct military action by the US against Iran, on Iranian soil

   by the end of 2024.

   2.5%

2. There will be direct military action by the US against Iran, on Iranian soil

   by July 2nd, 2025

   8%

Oct 7th

Israel primed to enter Lebanon, next few days fraught with uncertainty around Iran’s response. Yet doesn't seem likely for this conflict to escape the region. Mpox and H5N1 continue. Read the full update

1. Israeli strikes on Iranian military sites (such as missile launchers)

   by the end of 2024.

   90%

2. Israel will successfully strike at least one Iranian nuclear site

   by the end of 2024.

   50%

3. Israel will successfully strike at least one Iranian oil facility

   by the end of 2024.

   61%

Sept 30th

Israel primed to enter Lebanon, next few days fraught with uncertainty around Iran’s response. Yet doesn't seem likely for this conflict to escape the region. Mpox and H5N1 continue. Read the full update

1. An H5N1 pandemic starts and is declared by WHO

   By the end of 2025.

   15%

2. Ukraine uses long-range missiles to attack inside Russia

   This year.

   42%

3. Conditional on the above, Russia uses a nuclear weapon.

   In an act of war this year.

   0.21%

Sept 23rd

The intensity of the Israel/Hezbollah conflict escalated when Israel exploded Hezbollah's pagers and walkie-talkies, monkeypox and H5N1 continue being worrisome, and fires in Brazil and adjacent countries burnt an area greater than Germany. Read the full update

1. Israel invades Lebanon by the end of the year

   55%

2. Russian invasion of Armenia in the next 12 months

   1%

Sept 16th

OpenAI released their new o1 models, which are more powerful and perhaps more dangerous. There was another assasination attempt on Trump. The US withdrew an aircraft carrier from the Middle East. And the US and UK are considering giving Ukraine permission to use long-range weapons against Russia. Read the full update

1. Russia will use a nuclear weapon by the end of 2024

   0.2%

2. >10 combatant deaths in conflict between NATO and Russia

   0.25%

Sept 9th

Mpox continues to spread, and Missouri detects H5 case with no known contact with animals. Read the full update

1. H5 will be detected in the next two weeks in another community transmission case

   If it does, we get a pandemic

   5%

Sept 2nd

Mpox cases in Africa are growing superlinearly, while vaccine procurement processes are slow. Read the full update

1. SB 1047 to become law?

   per Manifold Markets

   50%

2. Ground invasion of Lebanon by November?

   per Polymarket

   13%

Aug 26th

Mpox clade Ib continues to spread, with new cases detected outside Africa in Thailand and possibly in Honduras. Read the full update

1. No new cases reported of claude Ib

   In the last two months of 2025

   20%

2. Total death toll

   by the end of 2025

   1k to 10k, 5k to 15k, 1k to 50k

Aug 19th

The WHO did declare the latest Mpox outbreak to be a public health emergency. Sweden became the first country outside Africa to record a case of the Clade 1b variant. Read the full update

1. At least 10 countries outside Africa record at least one new case of Mpox.

   By the end of the year.

   90% - 95%

2. More than 200 cases of Mpox recorded outside Africa

   By the end of the year.

   55%

Aug 12th

Mpox poses an increased risk to humanity with the news that the virus has spread to four new countries in Africa. Read the full update

1. World Health organization declares current Mpox outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)

   In next 12 months.

   60%

Aug 5th

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran, reportedly by Israel. Read the full update

1. Iran retaliates

   In any form.

   75% - 87%

2. Iran retaliates

   In a way that results in >100 deaths.

   2% - 5%