Foreseeing and reacting to globally impactful and existential catastrophes.
Sentinel protects against difficult-to-envision threats by forecasting near-term risks, detecting black swans earlier, and deploying our emergency response team to take mitigating action.
Even during global crises, independent operators can have a big impact.
Inspired by the work of groups like VaccinateCA, who were able to save thousands of lives by disseminating vaccine information more effectively than the US government, Sentinel generalizes this approach to crises that could lead to extinction-level events.
Team
Top forecasters from Samotsvety for the foresight team, diversely-skilled operators for the emergency respose team, and an ambitious leadership team.
The Foresight team’s goal is to monitor current events, update forecasts of these events leading to large-scale and existential catastrophes, alert the emergency response team when they deem the risk high enough, and support the emergency response team with ongoing forecasts if necessary. Crucially, the time-scales on which the Foresight team forecasts is that which judgmental forecasting is best suited to. Examples of events that could escalate into global risks are the invasion of Ukraine, cyberattacks/malfunctions, North Korean missile tests, or Sam Altman joking that “AGI has been achieved internally”.
In the event of a potentially upcoming catastrophe, the Foresight team alerts the Emergency Response team, then the public, then proceeds to work with the Emergency Response team to discern future scenarios and their probabilities.
Our newsletter tracks the greatest ongoing threats and assigns probabilities to escalation events.
Emergency Team Status: Passive
Tensions between Israel and Iran remain high while mpox continues to spread and H5N1 surveillance remains spotty Read the full update
Iran launches another missile or drone attack on Israeli soil
by the end of 2024.
Israel successfully strikes Iranian oil refineries by the end of the year
by the end of 2024.
Israel successfully strikes Iranian nuclear sites by the end of the year
by the end of 2024
10 deaths as a result of violent demonstrations conditional on the Associated Press declaring Trump’s opponent the victor.
Emergency Team Status: Passive
The prospect of a larger regional war receded as Israel said it would attack Iranian military rather than nuclear or oil targets. Mpox and H5N1 continue to pose pandemic threats. Read the full update
Emergency Team Status: Passive
It looks as though Israel won’t be bombarding nuclear sites in Iran. Read the full update
There will be direct military action by the US against Iran, on Iranian soil
by the end of 2024.
There will be direct military action by the US against Iran, on Iranian soil
by July 2nd, 2025
Emergency Team Status: Closely Monitoring
Israel primed to enter Lebanon, next few days fraught with uncertainty around Iran’s response. Yet doesn't seem likely for this conflict to escape the region. Mpox and H5N1 continue. Read the full update
Israeli strikes on Iranian military sites (such as missile launchers)
by the end of 2024.
Israel will successfully strike at least one Iranian nuclear site
by the end of 2024.
Israel will successfully strike at least one Iranian oil facility
by the end of 2024.
Emergency Team Status: Closely Monitoring
Israel primed to enter Lebanon, next few days fraught with uncertainty around Iran’s response. Yet doesn't seem likely for this conflict to escape the region. Mpox and H5N1 continue. Read the full update
An H5N1 pandemic starts and is declared by WHO
By the end of 2025.
Ukraine uses long-range missiles to attack inside Russia
This year.
Conditional on the above, Russia uses a nuclear weapon.
In an act of war this year.
Emergency Team Status: Passive
The intensity of the Israel/Hezbollah conflict escalated when Israel exploded Hezbollah's pagers and walkie-talkies, monkeypox and H5N1 continue being worrisome, and fires in Brazil and adjacent countries burnt an area greater than Germany. Read the full update
Israel invades Lebanon by the end of the year
Russian invasion of Armenia in the next 12 months
Emergency Team Status: Passive
OpenAI released their new o1 models, which are more powerful and perhaps more dangerous. There was another assasination attempt on Trump. The US withdrew an aircraft carrier from the Middle East. And the US and UK are considering giving Ukraine permission to use long-range weapons against Russia. Read the full update
Russia will use a nuclear weapon by the end of 2024
>10 combatant deaths in conflict between NATO and Russia
Emergency Team Status: Passive
Mpox continues to spread, and Missouri detects H5 case with no known contact with animals. Read the full update
H5 will be detected in the next two weeks in another community transmission case
If it does, we get a pandemic
Emergency Team Status: Passive
Mpox cases in Africa are growing superlinearly, while vaccine procurement processes are slow. Read the full update
SB 1047 to become law?
per Manifold Markets
Ground invasion of Lebanon by November?
per Polymarket
Emergency Team Status: Passive
Mpox clade Ib continues to spread, with new cases detected outside Africa in Thailand and possibly in Honduras. Read the full update
No new cases reported of claude Ib
In the last two months of 2025
Total death toll
by the end of 2025
Emergency Team Status: Passive
The WHO did declare the latest Mpox outbreak to be a public health emergency. Sweden became the first country outside Africa to record a case of the Clade 1b variant. Read the full update
At least 10 countries outside Africa record at least one new case of Mpox.
By the end of the year.
-
More than 200 cases of Mpox recorded outside Africa
By the end of the year.
Emergency Team Status: Passive
Mpox poses an increased risk to humanity with the news that the virus has spread to four new countries in Africa. Read the full update
World Health organization declares current Mpox outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)
In next 12 months.
Emergency Team Status: Passive
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran, reportedly by Israel. Read the full update
Iran retaliates
In any form.
-
Iran retaliates
In a way that results in >100 deaths.
-
Emergency Team Status: Passive
Tensions between Israel and Iran remain high while mpox continues to spread and H5N1 surveillance remains spotty Read the full update
Iran launches another missile or drone attack on Israeli soil
by the end of 2024.
Israel successfully strikes Iranian oil refineries by the end of the year
by the end of 2024.
Israel successfully strikes Iranian nuclear sites by the end of the year
by the end of 2024
10 deaths as a result of violent demonstrations conditional on the Associated Press declaring Trump’s opponent the victor.
Emergency Team Status: Passive
The prospect of a larger regional war receded as Israel said it would attack Iranian military rather than nuclear or oil targets. Mpox and H5N1 continue to pose pandemic threats. Read the full update
Emergency Team Status: Passive
It looks as though Israel won’t be bombarding nuclear sites in Iran. Read the full update
There will be direct military action by the US against Iran, on Iranian soil
by the end of 2024.
There will be direct military action by the US against Iran, on Iranian soil
by July 2nd, 2025
Emergency Team Status: Closely Monitoring
Israel primed to enter Lebanon, next few days fraught with uncertainty around Iran’s response. Yet doesn't seem likely for this conflict to escape the region. Mpox and H5N1 continue. Read the full update
Israeli strikes on Iranian military sites (such as missile launchers)
by the end of 2024.
Israel will successfully strike at least one Iranian nuclear site
by the end of 2024.
Israel will successfully strike at least one Iranian oil facility
by the end of 2024.
Emergency Team Status: Closely Monitoring
Israel primed to enter Lebanon, next few days fraught with uncertainty around Iran’s response. Yet doesn't seem likely for this conflict to escape the region. Mpox and H5N1 continue. Read the full update
An H5N1 pandemic starts and is declared by WHO
By the end of 2025.
Ukraine uses long-range missiles to attack inside Russia
This year.
Conditional on the above, Russia uses a nuclear weapon.
In an act of war this year.
Emergency Team Status: Passive
The intensity of the Israel/Hezbollah conflict escalated when Israel exploded Hezbollah's pagers and walkie-talkies, monkeypox and H5N1 continue being worrisome, and fires in Brazil and adjacent countries burnt an area greater than Germany. Read the full update
Israel invades Lebanon by the end of the year
Russian invasion of Armenia in the next 12 months
Stay informed
Our team members have been previously covered by…
Astral Codex Ten
TechCrunch