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Foreseeing and reacting to globally catastrophic and existential events.
Sentinel forecasts these risks and deploys emergency response teams to take high-leverage action towards mitigating quickly evolving crises.
Team
Top forecasters from Samotsvety for the foresight team, competent operators for the emergency respose team, and an ambitious leadership team.
The Foresight team’s goal is to monitor current events, update forecasts of these events leading to large-scale and existential catastrophes, alert the emergency response team when they deem the risk high enough, and support the emergency response team with ongoing forecasts if necessary. Crucially, the time-scales on which the Foresight team forecasts is that which judgemental forecasting is best suited to. Examples of events that could escalate into global risks are the invasion of Ukraine, cyberattacks/malfunctions, North Korean missile tests, or Sam Altman joking that “AGI has been achieved internally”.
In the event of a potentially upcoming catastrophe, the Foresight team alerts the Emergency Response team, then the public, then proceeds to work with the Emergency Response team to discern future scenarios and their probabilities.
Our newsletter tracks the greatest ongoing threats and assigns probabilities to escalation events.
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Risk: Low
Mpox cases in Africa are growing superlinearly, while vaccine procurement processes are slow. Read the full update
SB 1047 to become law?
per Manifold Markets
Ground invasion of Lebanon by November?
per Polymarket
Risk: Low
Mpox clade Ib continues to spread, with new cases detected outside Africa in Thailand and possibly in Honduras. Read the full update
No new cases reported of claude Ib
In the last two months of 2025
Total death toll
by the end of 2025
Risk: Low
The WHO did declare the latest Mpox outbreak to be a public health emergency. Sweden became the first country outside Africa to record a case of the Clade 1b variant. Read the full update
At least 10 countries outside Africa record at least one new case of Mpox.
By the end of the year.
-
More than 200 cases of Mpox recorded outside Africa
By the end of the year.
Risk: Low
Mpox poses an increased risk to humanity with the news that the virus has spread to four new countries in Africa. Read the full update
World Health organization declares current Mpox outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)
In next 12 months.
Risk: Low
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran, reportedly by Israel. Read the full update
Iran retaliates
In any form.
-
Iran retaliates
In a way that results in >100 deaths.
-
Risk: Low
Mpox cases in Africa are growing superlinearly, while vaccine procurement processes are slow. Read the full update
SB 1047 to become law?
per Manifold Markets
Ground invasion of Lebanon by November?
per Polymarket
Risk: Low
Mpox clade Ib continues to spread, with new cases detected outside Africa in Thailand and possibly in Honduras. Read the full update
No new cases reported of claude Ib
In the last two months of 2025
Total death toll
by the end of 2025
Risk: Low
The WHO did declare the latest Mpox outbreak to be a public health emergency. Sweden became the first country outside Africa to record a case of the Clade 1b variant. Read the full update
At least 10 countries outside Africa record at least one new case of Mpox.
By the end of the year.
-
More than 200 cases of Mpox recorded outside Africa
By the end of the year.
Risk: Low
Mpox poses an increased risk to humanity with the news that the virus has spread to four new countries in Africa. Read the full update
World Health organization declares current Mpox outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)
In next 12 months.
Risk: Low
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran, reportedly by Israel. Read the full update
Iran retaliates
In any form.
-
Iran retaliates
In a way that results in >100 deaths.
-