Sentinel reading list

From our writings:

• How Likely Are Various Precursors of Existential Risk?
• Global Risks Weekly Roundup, a few weekly editions
• Making sense of Israel’s strikes on Iran
• Our WIP fundraiser

Fundaments of Probability Theory

• Probability Theory: The Logic of Science, by E.T. Jaynes, particularly the first two or three chapters on probability as a subjective expectation.
• Interpretations of Probability, Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy

Probability in Practice

• Superforecasting, Tetlock et. al.
• How to Measure Anything*, Douglas W. Hubbard
• Introduction to Fermi estimates
• Squiggle, SquiggleHub

Limits of Probability Theory

• To Explain the World, Steven Weinberg (history of science)
• The Black Swan, Nassim Taleb
• Memo on the grain of truth problem
• Metarationality, David Chapman
• A Gentle Introduction to Risk Frameworks Beyond Forecasting

Existential risk

• The Precipice, Toby Ord
• There is No Antimemetics Division, qntm
• The Vulnerable World Hypothesis, Nick Bostrom